Category:Betting Systems
From AusRace
TOPIC: On betting systems
From archives:
Dear Ausracers,
Just a quick note to reply to Craig Myers little letter regarding systems. I was an avid system follower for many years. I still do use one system at the moment. For several years I followed up to twenty systems at once betting a couple of dollars on each selection in a systematic fashion.
Keeping acurate records for all selections and profit/loss for the particular systems. At the same time I was also testing several other systems. Some of these systems were bought (costing up to $200) others were from books or magazines and others were made by yours truely. I even published What I believed to be one of my better systems and sold it through the Sportsman for $25. I must say This was a lot of work on a saturday morning (getting up at 6am just to start the analysis).
The sad fact was that this was mostly in vain, there were only a couple of systems that made any money very little money in fact.
None of the systems made consistent profits. Most of the winning systems (which were very few indeed) mad their profits from freak longshot winners. I don't know what the protocol for mentioning commercial systems is here so I won't. If you like you can email me personally. There was one very good system from which I did make a bit of money from but even this has let me down of late.
The Moral of this story is that after all of these years of analysis I have come to the conclusion that system betting is not the way to go. I don't believe you can effectively predict the winner of a race without taking into consideration the merits of the other horses in a race.
For example a horse may qualify as a system selection and may win against one field but may lose against another better field. I do not know of many systems that take this factor into account. The system I won money on did take this into account in a limited way.
I believe a better way to pick winners is to rate a race taking into account the chances of all the horses in a race and then betting the value selections. Some people would call this a system.
If you wan't more information on systems I have used you can email me in person. Or an even better option is to get a hold of a punters choice annual which reviews many of the better systems available on the market. you should contact Ian Barns for more info I think he might even be a part of ausrace.
Well thats my thoughts on the matter I did spend years looking for that perfect system maybe I didn't look hard enough. I would like to hear other peoples comments on this issue.
Before I go here is a freebie, This is the system that cost you $25 a few years ago from me but here it is as a gift because I am only starting out in this group. Punters choice did review it and gave it an unfavourable review I believe it is a better system than they gave it credit. I have no recent results but I would love to hear from anyone who tries this and maybe get some up to date results. It is very selective but it is a goody.
REPEAT SELECTION SYSTEM.
Only select Wednesday and Saturday meetings, metro tracks on a Fast, Good or Dead track.
- The horse must have won both of its last two starts.
- The horse must have a place percentage of at least 60%.
- Eliminate any horse with average prizemoney less than $2000.
- The pre post odds must be between 2/1 and 20/1.
Horse betting systems and handicapping angles.
For as long as people have been betting on horse racing, they have been looking for a system that would allow them to pick winning horses. Enormous amounts of data has been collected and analyzed by people and computers, hoping to find a magic system that would produce winning picks on a regular basis.
It has not been found. There is no simple system that will allow you to beat the races on a regular basis. However, you can make money consistently at the racetrack through hard work and practice. The suggestions provided here are intended as a primer on handicapping horse races.
None of these systems or angles work all of the time, but they might give you a good starting point for ways to look at a race, and how to handicap using different methods that have been known to identify horses that might win. Remember, there is no such thing as a system that works all the time!
Second up after spell .
With this angle you are looking for a horse that was first up last race. If he showed speed and faded at the end of the race, or has a closing running style and came up short at the finish, he might be a horse to bet in his next start. The idea being that the horse needed the run and will improve in his next start.
Luck in Running .
When looking at the horses past performances, you note that he started well lost ground during the middle of the race and then came back at the end, improving his position. An indication of "heart" or perhaps he ran into trouble, in any case horses that exhibit this running style in previous races often come back to run big. Make sure that the horse did not improve at the end by only passing tiring rivals.
Speedy horse dropping in class or distance or getting a good run
Any time you can find a horse who possesses speed at some stage of a race he is worth a long look. When you find a horse with speed who is dropping in class or distance take a careful look. Speed wins and when a horse gets an easy run up front or a good sit and sprint at the finish they often win.
Pre Post Odds
When looking at the odds of the field approaching start time if you notice that a horse is shortening considerably pay attention.
The theory is that "where there is smoke there is fire". This is most often seen in maiden races loaded with first time starters or 2 or 3 yearl old lightly raced horses where form can be hiddent at least up to this point.
Early speed and better barrier angle.
This system has found many longshot winners. When looking at a race, find a horse that showed early speed in his last start and held his position to at least the final turn. If this horse is improving his barrier position today (closer to the fence) then he is worth a bet. Even If the horse is moving up in class, and especially if his current odds are lower than his previous start odds then give him a good chance.
Track Change or Conditions
Watch form on previous tracks or condition of tracks. The theory behind betting a horse making a track or surface change has to do with the likelihood that the trainer has determined that the horse will improve on the tracks either on the surface, size or other variations that may suit the horse. Some tracks are harder on the horse physically, have tighter turns, longer straights and so on.
A horse may hurt more on a hard track than a soft or dead track. If he has any soreness in the legs, it will be aggravated by running on a hard (or fast) track, a switch to a soft track will lessen any discomfort the horse may have. A horse going from soft to hard may have more confidence and be sounder than a horse that has only been running on fast/hard tracks and suddenly finds themselves on a soft or dead track.
Jockey improvement
When a horse has a new jockey with a higher win percentage than the jockey in his previous races it is often a sign of good things to come. Jockeys with high win percentages often get their pick of horses in a race, and factors unknown to the general public may often be behind their decision to ride a horse that looks to be outclassed in a given race. When you see a positive jockey switch pay attention to the odds.
Speed selection betting system
With this betting system you eliminate horses and races based on the following criteria.
- Do not bet in a race with more than 3 or 4 first time runners (most maiden races would be passed)
- Eliminate any horse whose last two races were not run at the same track as today's race.
- Eliminate any horse whose last race was more or less than one furlong (200m) different than today's race.
- Eliminate any horse whose last two races were on a different track surface (soft/dead/fast) than today's race.
- If the horse was not on the lead or within 3 lengths of the leader at the turn and finish of his last race, eliminate the horse.
If you are left with more than one horse, bet the horse with the best odds last race to win and box it with the other qualifying horses in any novelty bets you make. If more than 3 horses qualify, leave the race alone.
Points based horse betting systems.
With this systems you give points to each horse based on the rules, the horse with the most points will be your selection for the race. Same rules are:
- Look at the last four races for each horse. Add the two best ratings earned in those four races together. The horse with the highest rating score gets 4 points, the second best gets 2 points.
- Look at the last two races for each horse. And combine the lengths each horse was beaten together. If a horse won the race it counts as zero. A horse that won its last two starts would earn a total of zero. A horse that lost one race by 5 lengths, and another by 1/2 length would earn a 5.5. The horse with the lowest number in this step would earn 3 points and the second best horse will earn 2. If two or more horses won their last 2 races then do not add points to any horse.
- Any horse whose trainer has a win percentage of 10% or better earns 2 points.
- Any horse whose jockey has a win percentage of 10% or better earns 1 point.
- If the race is longer than 1600m deduct one point for each horse in barriers 9-12.
- If the race is a sprint (less or equal to 1400m) award 1 point for each horse that was within 3 lengths of the lead at the turn and finish of his last race.
- Add 1 point for any horse using blinkers for the first time.
- The horse with the most points is the horse to bet on with the following exception. If the horse with highest amount of points is not at least 3 points higher than the horse with the second most points, pass the race.
Dutch Betting System
This is not a handicapping method, but a betting system that is used to cover several horses in a race. The idea behind the system is that the more horses you bet, the better chance you have of winning.
Of course, the payoff on your winning horse has to cover the cost of the bets on the losing horses. In this system, the player sets an amount that he hopes to win on the race, lets say $100 for our example. He then calculates how much he needs to bet on a particular horse to generate a $100 return. If Horse "A" is 4:1 in the betting pool, he would return $10 for a $2 bet.
In order to get back $100 on Horse "A" you would bet $20 to win, resulting in a $100 payout ($80 profit + your original $20 bet). If horse "B" was 2:1, it would pay $6 to win, so you would need to bet approximately $34 on that horse to get back $100. If horse "C" is 9:1, it would return $20 for a $2 bet, therefore you would need to bet $10 in order to get back $100.
So covering all three horses (Horse A at 4:1, Horse B at 2:1, and Horse C at 9:1) would cost you $64. If any one of them won you would get back $100 and realize a 436 dollar profit. Of course, if none of them won you would be out $100 and in bad shape.
This system is mainly used when a handicapper does not like the betting favorites in a race and feels that one of the "longshots" will win the race. Using a Dutch system he can cover several of the longer priced horses and still make a profit regardless of the outcome. See more example of this in
Pages in category "Betting Systems"
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